![]() We arrived at five key economic themes and three investment themes for our six- to 12-month cyclical horizon, which we discuss in the next sections. Structural differences in housing markets and mortgage financing will play a role. This collective slowdown may also play out differently across countries depending on their sensitivity to changing interest rates. This year’s broad-based economic resilience will likely give way to weakness next year as sources of fiscal support diminish and the delayed effects of tighter monetary policy exert a stronger global influence. We expect growth across developed market (DM) economies to slow to varying degrees, and in some cases to contract. We believe both growth and inflation have peaked. Central banks are reaching the end of their tightening cycles on different schedules and with different peak policy rates in sight. ![]() Similar scenarios are playing out globally as countries continue their efforts to quell the post-pandemic inflationary spike. financial markets, and there are concerns that the British economy could soon stall or slip into a recession. This tightening of monetary policy has fueled increased volatility in U.K. The Bank of England (BOE) is nearing the end of a long journey to raise interest rates. Our September Cyclical Forum was the first to be held in London, where the economic situation today reflects what’s happening around the world. ![]()
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